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mchicken is dejected.
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PostPosted: Thu Mar 19, 2009 7:40 am    Post subject: Barack-etology Reply with quote

Apparently he picked swing state teams:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/03/obama-ncaa-bracket-shows-bias-toward.html
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jaster is back in black
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PostPosted: Thu Mar 19, 2009 9:03 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

linear regression with rmse and 95% confidence interval or gtfo.
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mchicken is dejected.
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PostPosted: Thu Mar 19, 2009 9:06 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

jaster wrote:
linear regression with rmse and 95% confidence interval or gtfo.


Why would it need to be linear...some things aren't. Especially since picking the favorite or not is a binary dependent variable..not normally distributed..etc.

Speaking of the Big Dance, do you even watch this beast?
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jaster is back in black
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PostPosted: Thu Mar 19, 2009 9:22 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I do watch it.

Also, I say linear regression because I think the analysis would have been more meaningful had he made the dependent variable a binary (coded 0 and 1) upset pick in favor of swing state variable. Then he'd have a linear probability model for the likelihood that Obama would pick the swingier upset on a linear model (though he could square or square root one of the independent variables in the regression as opposed to the coding to get stata to give him fancier lines).

I'm just saying, his output doesn't convince me. Also, he controlled for exactly nothing, which doesn't make for a rigorous conclusion. I'm just saying, if we assume that what he's saying is true and there is a correlation, maybe it's something else about swing states other than their swinginess. Maybe states with close races tend to produce less douchey senators and that's what's influencing him.

I'll I'm saying is... I'm picking VCU and Temple and I'm not running for shit.
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mchicken is dejected.
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PostPosted: Thu Mar 19, 2009 9:33 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I actually think that "swing" states have better basketball teams.

And way to jump on the VCU bandwagon with every single scrub in this entire country.
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jaster is back in black
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PostPosted: Thu Mar 19, 2009 9:58 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

mchicken wrote:
And way to jump on the VCU bandwagon with every single scrub in this entire country.


I was just making a joke since Obama picking VCU was one of the significant findings of the guy's analysis.
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mchicken is dejected.
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PostPosted: Thu Mar 19, 2009 10:04 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

jaster wrote:
mchicken wrote:
And way to jump on the VCU bandwagon with every single scrub in this entire country.


I was just making a joke since Obama picking VCU was one of the significant findings of the guy's analysis.


27.5% of people are picking them to upset a 6 seed in the first round, that's huge.

But bank on this: The North Dakota State Bison, in their first year as a member of a Division I conference, will upset defending champion Kansas in the first round. When we go to Foxwoods, we need to lay about a cool grand on that beast. The line is Bison +10.5. I'm all over that. And a Bison would crush a Jayhawk (whatever that is) any day of the week.
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jaster is back in black
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PostPosted: Thu Mar 19, 2009 10:35 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

mchicken wrote:
When we go to Foxwoods, we need to lay about a cool grand on that beast.


Bold.

mchicken wrote:
And a Bison would crush a Jayhawk (whatever that is) any day of the week.


And also daring.
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mchicken is dejected.
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PostPosted: Thu Mar 19, 2009 10:41 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

So apparently the table minimums at Foxwoods for blackjack are $10. (Didn't see any info on the new MGM Grand expansion, maybe they have different tables). I really would have preferred a $5.
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