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mchicken is dejected.
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Joined: 11 Sep 2007
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 04, 2009 10:53 am    Post subject: Local Sports Teams Reply with quote

http://www.projo.com/patriots/content/sp_fbn_jim_donaldson_03_03-03-09_DHDGTO2_v13.393efa4.html

Apparently our good friend Tom Brady has lost his competitive edge because he got married to a supermodel.

Whoever wrote that article is a monster.
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jaster is back in black
Mod Emperor of Dune


Joined: 11 Sep 2007
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 04, 2009 11:14 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm still looking for a solid explanation for this: http://nbcsports.msnbc.com/id/29443788/

Even if they expect Brady to be back, it still don't make no sense.
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mchicken is dejected.
Cover of Rush's Seminal Album


Joined: 11 Sep 2007
Posts: 3835

PostPosted: Wed Mar 04, 2009 11:39 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Average starts per season for the career, based on draft position:

First overall pick: 11.77 mean games started per season.
2: 11.79
3: 10.34
4: 12.12
5: 10.97
6: 10.63
7: 12.09
8: 12.34
9: 12.86
10: 11.34
11: 10.22
12: 9.46
13: 11.48
14: 9.77
15: 8.66
16: 9.31
17: 9.02
18: 8.48
19: 11.15
20: 11.52
21: 9.89
22: 8.12
23: 9.55
24: 7.99
25: 6.92
26: 9.31
27: 7.79
28: 9.08
29: 6.62
30: 7.94
31: 7.51
32: 7.46

This trend continues into the second round, so the 34th pick is something like 7 games per season, but I don't have the number in front of me.

So on average going from the 3rd overall pick to the 34th pick loses you 3 games per season of value from your pick.

The third pick gets something like $30 mil guaranteed and the 34th gets something like $3 mil guaranteed. Is that (at least) $27 mil really worth it?

Here's the study about all this draft stuff. http://www.nber.org/papers/w11270.pdf

Cost-benefit analysis seems to show that per dollar value increases as you go through the first round towards the 32nd pick.

Second round picks are drastically underpaid, so they're great value. I think the Pats now have 1 mid-to-late first round pick and 3 second round picks.

I do think they would have rather had the late-ish first round that Denver was offering, though. Denver just took way too long to get in the game. Belichick had already agreed to KC's offer.
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jaster is back in black
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Joined: 11 Sep 2007
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 04, 2009 2:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

To be fair, I was being a bit facetious... the 'explain this to me' story was big over the weekend.

Actually, in polisci lab we went over just how bad sports teams (in particular, MLB teams) are at using basic statistical tools to determine which players are good and which players are bad.

Apparently, major and minor league baseball teams have an overwhelming tendency to pick players look like good players as opposed to those whom would be picked out by analysis as actually good players.
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When I am weaker than you, I ask you for freedom because that is according to your principles; when I am stronger than you, I take away your freedom because that is according to my principles.
-Children of Dune, attributed to Louis Veuillot
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mchicken is dejected.
Cover of Rush's Seminal Album


Joined: 11 Sep 2007
Posts: 3835

PostPosted: Wed Mar 04, 2009 3:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Baseball is really weird though because they have two drafts and draft literally everyone who has ever picked up a baseball in their lives. For all I know, I was drafted in one of the later (50th) rounds.
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